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Pamela Maldonado
Colonial Country Club has chewed up plenty of players over the years. The fairways are narrow, the rough can get sticky and even when players club down off the tee, driving accuracy still hovers at about 60%. It’s an iron play tournament, plain and simple.
Most of the important approach shots are from under 200 yards and the guys who dial in their distances will hang around the leaderboard. The restoration is now in year three so the greens and surrounding areas could finally play the way they were intended to, making putting important this week.
Distance doesn’t really move the needle, so I’m backing players with smart course management more than power.
Here are some players I like to contend this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and subject to change.
Best bets
Ludvig Åberg Top 10 (+120)
He’s the best player in the field and the best fit on the board this week. Colonial rewards iron play above everything else and Aberg is first in the field on approach and tee to green. He’s been posting top 5s at elite venues all season — Players, RBC, Truist and a T4 in the PGA Championship most recently. That’s a player operating at a different level right now close to a win if he can close out the fourth round (36th in fourth round scoring). His shapes the ball well, controls his distances and plays measured. That type of technical iron play thrives in this environment.
Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+110)
He’s been here before and that’s the point. I once took Fowler for basically the same profile he has now: performed poorly at a major soon before, bad putting week, strong everything else, and then a bounce back at Colonial. He finished top 20 that year and the setup is nearly identical now. He was T60 at the PGA Championship, driven almost entirely by putting, but he’s top five in the field in strokes gained total and finished T2 at Trust just the week before. Colonial suits his game — top 20 in bentgrass putting, meaning the putter should normalize here. His lack of driving distance helps since Colonial better suits players laying up anyway, neutralizing his shorter-hitting tendencies. Top 20 is generous.
Ryo Hisatsune Top 20 (+182)
This is a price play. He had a missed cut here in 2024 then a T6 last year, flipping his irons to positive and gaining loads with his short game. I read that as a player that learned the course and corrected it. His iron play has been trending in the right direction heading into this event. He posted a T19 in the Byron Nelson and gained five plus strokes in back to back week ball striking. He’s Top 12 in the field from tee to green and with Colonial being iron play first, he belongs in the conversation. The broader putting and around the green numbers are the risk but he showed last year that positive regression can pop.
Daily fantasy plays and fades
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Play
Justin Thomas, $9,800
Thomas is just never a player I feel fully confident putting on, so DFS is the next best option. He’s really solid around the green, his irons are locked in (16th in the field) more so now than how he started the season, gaining instead of losing, and coming off his best recent finish, a T4 at Aronimink after a Top 15 at Quail Hollow. The risk is the same; his driving accuracy lacks, which is worrisome on a course that is among the toughest driving venues on tour. If he’s spraying it, he’ll be exposed. However, Thomas fits salary options without it feeling like a punt. He has course fit and some momentum to fire for fantasy.
Alex Smalley, $9,100
Finishing T2 in the PGA Championship gaining over seven strokes putting is the headline. Putting was elite and that could be the key separator at Colonial. His recent form across the board is legit with Top 15 finishes spread across events this season. The irons are inconsistent but the ball striking combined with the putting is what can reward you in fantasy if both show up this week. He’s underpriced relative to what he just did in a major. Aberg and will be heavily owned so Smalley gives you elite recent form, a strong putting week possibility and salary relief.